A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
