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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd